Decode Health CEO widens view of COVID19 impact, as projections play-out
By Milt Capps
DECODE HEALTH Co-Founder and CEO Chase Spurlock PhD said earlier this year that his firm's efforts to monitor, model and predict COVID-19 risk and vulnerabilities pointed to the rising probability of spreading infections in cities and outlying counties, and reinforced the importance of factoring-in social determinants of health (SDOH) in forecasting and treating victims of the pandemic.
As shown in our May 21 story on Decode and its mission, back then the State of Tennessee and Metro Nashville spoke in diligent and cautiously optimistic tones regarding the state's ability to attain stability and support healthcare, despite Tennesseans' widely varying degrees of acceptance and practice of personal precautionary measures.
Tennessee confidence may well be under greater pressure today in the midst of the coronavirus surge and alarming numbers of infections, hospitalizations and deaths, even while initial quantities of COVID-19 vaccine have begun arriving for use within high-risk and essential-worker populations.
We reached out to Spurlock just ahead of the current multi-holiday season, as the disease's accelerating spread seemed to add additional layers of validation for Decode's forecasts.
Here is the latest statement Spurlock provided VNC:
We've been tracking state and county level trends since the early days of the pandemic. Particularly in TN, we've focused on predicting case growth a few weeks out to spotlight the highest risk counties in the state. We're doing this analysis weekly and the accuracy levels are often 90% or greater.
The point we made very early on about the rural counties heating up, unfortunately played out over time...which was unfortunate.
. last edited 1653 18 December 2020